Good morning,

AThere are any number of relevant topics we could focus on right now: unprecedented movements in gold prices, Bitcoin's fresh record high of over $125,000, new credit worries springing up in dark corners of the financial system, or Fermi's plan to build an 11GW data center campus in Texas (which led to a successful $15bn IPO earlier this month, despite the company being less than one year old with no revenue).

But we decided to bring things back to our roots by looking again at the problem of stranded and undervalued power.

Electricity Prices Were Rising Before the AI Boom

We were recently invited to speak to members of the National Hydropower Association about both the positive and negative impacts data centers are having on our power grids. As part of that presentation, we created a graphic to illustrate that a lot of movement in electricity prices had actually happened well before the current AI craze.

Even after Google Trends showed "ChatGPT" hitting significant interest levels, it's not as though there was suddenly massive and widespread incremental AI data center power consumption. Most AI computing has so far been done in retrofitted facilities which had already been (for the most part) drawing their full allocation of power before AI computing had become a relevant consideration. A few newer facilities supplemented this, but for the most part, AI has been (for now) a relatively modest part of the total data center load.

That said, Bloomberg's coverage of this topic highlights that in areas with "significant data center activity," electricity prices are up as much as 267% vs. five years ago. Consumers (aka voters) are picking up on this narrative and it's clearly starting to cause some concern among both data center developers and regulated utilities given how much market value is derived from this expected growth. Do a search for "data center electricity prices" and you'll be inundated with recent stories highlighting this sudden pushback all across the country. Data center developers may soon find themselves unwelcome in the very places they anticipated would be most profitable and immediate, particularly those marketing massive hyperscale projects where the power consumption figures are difficult to ignore.

Higher Prices Don't Always Benefit Power Producers

The good news, one might think, is that these higher electricity prices must certainly be benefiting power producers. Unfortunately, that's not always the case.

Using Berkeley Lab's Energy Markets & Policy tool, we've been tracking the percentage of the year in which electricity prices are negative for a given location. As you can see from the data, the problem of stranded power is getting worse and worse, not better. Some regions in 2024 reflect negative electricity prices for 30% of the year.

Even as demand in key areas is driving up pricing, excess generation capacity coupled with a lack of transmission and storage infrastructure throughout the plains states, Texas, and elsewhere means a lot of generation owners are feeling more strain than ever. Furthermore, as more natural gas and other co-located dispatchable generation assets are frantically added to the grid, they should help temper some of those extremely high-priced hours of the year, meaning existing asset owners will increasingly miss out on what had been key revenue-driving periods.

Curtailment: A Massive and Growing Problem

And we haven't even talked about generation curtailment yet. It's a huge and growing problem, not only in the U.S., but all around the globe:

• EIA (May 2025): Solar and wind power curtailments are increasing in California

• FactSet Insights (February 2025): ERCOT curtailments persist as load rises

• PV Magazine (September 2025): Brazil solar curtailment hits 20% as renewables strain grid

• Reuters (September 2025): Japan's renewable curtailments on track to hit record as nuclear generation rises

• PV Tech (July 2025): Australian solar PV power plants see curtailment above 25% in 2024

• Energies Media (October 2025): Europe hits record wind power curtailments in first nine months of 2025

These figures represent absolutely massive amounts of wasted potential and lost value, and it causes us here at Greenlight no small degree of anguish over the missed opportunity.

Why Most Stranded Assets Won't Benefit from AI

Many owners of assets in these situations are waiting for some sort of salvation from the data center industry that simply isn't going to come. Big data center campuses will be built where it's convenient for the computing industry and many of these will be powered by new baseload and dispatchable generation. Some thoughtfully-designed AI projects (like Greenlight) can more readily and quickly be interconnected and brought online in smaller footprints where there is available power infrastructure. But by and large, those owners of stranded wind / solar / hydro / etc. are simply not going to see any material benefit at their nodes from this broader AI narrative.

If you're an owner of such an asset, you should absolutely take a shot at contracting with a data center developer (like Greenlight) that wants your power for AI computing. However, if you can't sell power behind the meter, and you are not in a market where PPAs to AI data centers are workable, you're mostly just out of luck.

Greenlight's Approach

This is exactly why Greenlight's Power-First Site Acceleration methodology focuses on building where the power already exists. We're not waiting for transmission upgrades. We're not competing for constrained capacity in overheated markets. We're developing AI-ready infrastructure in underbuilt locations with available power, turning what would otherwise be curtailed or negatively-priced generation into productive computing capacity.

Our smaller-footprint projects can be interconnected and brought online more quickly in markets where power producers are struggling with curtailment and negative pricing. We're matching infrastructure development to power availability, creating value for both generation owners and computing operators.

The Path Forward

The collision between surging electricity prices in hot markets and growing curtailment in power-rich regions represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Asset owners facing curtailment shouldn't assume the AI boom will automatically solve their problems through traditional hyperscale development. But thoughtful approaches that prioritize power availability over market convenience can create real solutions.

The key is building where the power is, not where it's most convenient.

Greenlight Data Centers develops AI-ready infrastructure in underbuilt U.S. markets using a Power-First Site Acceleration methodology. Learn more about our approach at greenlightdc.com.

Regards,

Andrew Webber, Chairman Greenlight Data Centers